Advertising as Tariff Fears Mount: Strategies for 2025

There’s a word on everyone’s mind right now: recession.

Tariff negotiations have caused market uncertainty, all while inflation continues to loom. JP Morgan projects a 60% probability of the U.S. entering into a recession this year. And even if a downturn is avoided altogether 🤞, advertising budgets are already tightening.

As a result, the agencies and brands we partner with are starting to ask:

• Which tactics should be prioritized when budgets are tight?
• How can we justify our investment given economic uncertainty?

Here are some tips to keep in mind wherever there’s a downturn, as well as specific stats and developments that we’re seeing in the streaming TV space.

Maintaining Mindshare Matters

Try to say that three times fast — because it’s a great rallying cry when consumer confidence drops. 

Time and again, brands that maintain or increase visibility during downturns come out stronger. Why? Because when others go quiet, your voice gets louder.

While it can be tempting to pull back on advertising, times like right now are when consistently showing up matters the most. History shows that brands maintaining visibility through 9/11, the housing crash, and COVID-19 didn’t just survive — they emerged stronger on the other side. 

So the question isn’t whether or not to advertise, but how to do it effectively. And that’s where we see advertisers taking a more selective approach to their media mix.

Measurable Ad Channels = Smarter Spending

A recent EMARKETER report shows that while advertisers are anticipating tariff-induced budget cuts, some channels are feeling it worse than others. 

Connected TV (CTV) advertising is the most resilient channel across the board, with only 12% of respondents anticipating budget decline. Investment into linear TV, on the other hand, will likely be cut by 24% of advertisers, and 43% expect to pull back on other traditional media channels. 

So what gives? How are advertisers choosing where to invest? A lot of it comes down to measurability and flexibility. 

"In uncertain times, knowing what's working — and why — is your biggest advantage. Programmatic CTV provides enough data to justify the investment. Even better, CTV campaigns can be stopped, changed, and optimized on the fly, allowing for greater flexibility than linear, which is often bought in the upfronts.”

- Joel Cox | Strategus Co-Founder

During economic downturns, accountability and effectiveness become more critical. Brands can’t afford to waste dollars on channels that don’t deliver business results. 

Luckily, CTV combines the big-screen impact of traditional TV with the data-driven benefits of digital channels, which we discuss more below.

Ad-Supported Streaming Show Resilience

Marketing 101 tells us to follow our audience. And right now, consumers are migrating towards more affordable streaming options. 

While the streaming wars were once dominated by subscription-only models, viewers are now opting for free ad-supported streaming TV (FAST) or lower-cost hybrid options (HVOD).

Netflix has seen growth for this very reason. While other tech and media stocks are taking a nosedive, Netflix shares are up 10% year to date. One reason for this is ads. Over 55% of new subscribers are choosing the ad-supported tier in countries where it’s available. 

To put another way: consumers are increasingly willing to watch ads in exchange for lower subscription costs — creating a win-win for both viewers and advertisers looking for engaged audiences. And this reality extends beyond just Netflix.

FAST platforms like Tubi, Pluto TV, and the Roku channel are also seeing a surge in viewership. A recent study from LG Ad Solutions found that 67% of consumers prefer FAST content and 36% of viewers canceled at least one paid streaming service in the past year.

This migration towards ad-supported models underscores the importance of CTV in a media mix, especially when accountability is paramount. Your audience is there, and they are increasingly receptive to ads as part of the viewing experience.

Precision Targeting Helps Brands Stay Nimble

Now more than ever, marketers and media buyers need to be sure that they’re reaching the right buyers at the right moment. That means prioritizing in-market prospects and building a smarter funnel — from awareness to conversion. 

While linear TV still relies on broad demographics and upfront buys, CTV enables advertisers to target based on major life events, app usage, purchase behavior, and more. That means your media dollars go further, especially when budgets are tight.

We also know that the wider a campaign is — meaning the more paid touchpoints used across CTV, online video, streaming audio, search, and social — the better it will perform. CTV's precise targeting isn't just about reaching the right person initially; it's about identifying valuable prospects who can then be seamlessly carried through the rest of the conversion journey.

For example, when a potential customer sees your CTV ad, that exposure can be used to trigger sequential messaging across other channels, such as display ads or streaming audio. This coordinated approach gives advertisers the precision to only reach valuable prospects, backed by the follow-through to nurture viewers to conversion. It’s a powerful combination that allows every marketing dollar needs to pull double duty.

Staying Visible While Playing Smart

Brands that maintain visibility during economic uncertainty don't just preserve market share — they often gain it at the expense of competitors who cut back. But awareness alone isn’t a great justification for maintaining ad spend. For this reason, many advertisers are reallocating their budgets to channels that provide flexibility and measurability.

• Prioritize attribution and measurement: Now is the time to double down on understanding exactly what your advertising dollars deliver. Implement comprehensive attribution solutions that track the customer journey from ad exposure to purchase, whether online or in-store.

• Test and learn: Economic uncertainty demands agility. Allocate a portion of your budget to testing new creative approaches, audience segments, and frequency patterns. Use the insights gained to continuously optimize your larger campaign spending.

• Balance brand and performance: While short-term performance metrics are critical during economic downturns, don't sacrifice long-term brand building. The most successful advertisers maintain this balance, focusing on immediate conversions while still investing in the emotional connections that drive long-term loyalty.
  
  
• Consider the full funnel: Traditional TV advertising excels at awareness, but connected TV is increasingly being used in more performance-driven campaigns. Explore retargeting strategies that connect CTV viewing to other channels to get more bang for your buck and turn awareness into action.

At Strategus, we’ve helped brands navigate similar challenges, and we’re here to determine the best approach for your business during this time. Every industry will be impacted differently and priorities will vary accordingly. That’s why we partner with agencies and brands to craft winning strategies based on their needs.

Every dollar matters right now — but so does visibility. Let’s build a strategy that prioritizes both.

Reach out today for a free CTV consultation